According to analysis from Election Data Services (EDS), using estimates from the Census Bureau, "13 states will be impacted by changes in their congressional delegation if these new numbers were used for apportionment today” (one more than last year's estimate.)

While multiple possible scenarios could be in play, New York looks likely to be the biggest loser, and Florida and Texas the biggest winners.

States Gaining Districts (7)

  • Arizona +1 (from 9 to 10)
  • Colorado +1 (from 7 to 8)
  • Florida +2 (from 27 to 29)
  • Montana +1 (from At-large to 2)
  • North Carolina +1 (from 13 to 14)
  • Oregon +1 (from 5 to 6)
  • Texas +3 (from 36 to 39) 

States Losing Districts (8 or 10)

  • Alabama -1 (from 7 to 6)
  • California -1 or even (from 53 to 52 or no change)
  • Illinois -1 (from 18 to 17)
  • Michigan -1 (from 14 to 13)
  • Minnesota -1 or even (from 8 to 7 or no change)
  • New York -2 (from 27 to 25)
  • Ohio -1 (from 16 to 15)
  • Pennsylvania -1 (from 18 to 17)
  • Rhode Island -1 (from 2 to 1)
  • West Virginia -1 (from 3 to 2) 

These estimates could be impacted not just by actual changes in population, but by the accuracy of the 2020 headcount. With a potential undercount in rural America (from a change in counting methodology and insufficient testing) and a potential undercount among the immigrant population (due to the addition of a citizenship question), these estimated outcomes for House seats could change further.